VALUATION THEORY

Chepakovich Valuation Model       Valuation Basics      Valuation of Banks       Intrinsic Value

VALUATION OF BANKS

Banks have four primary sources of income:

  • Lending. As a group, banks get money from deposits, which are primarily short-term in nature, and on-lend it to borrowers for long periods. This results in a co-called maturity transformation: short-term money is transformed into long-term one. This is the main function of commercial banks in the economy. For this operation to be profitable, average short-term interest rates during the tenor of an average loan should be less than long-term interest rates. Banks lend money to borrowers of different credit quality, with the rate of interest rate charged corresponding to the credit rating. Higher interest rate is justified and compensated for by higher rate of default of riskier borrowers.
  • Cash management. Managing cash (which basically means keeping and optimizing operational cash balances and processing payments) for clients is a source of stable and, what is very important, risk-free income for banks (they do not put bank's capital at risk here).
  • Trading. In this area, banks execute transactions for their clients and also for their own account (this is called 'proprietary trading'). While the first activity is risk-free for the bank (it earns its income by charging transaction fees), the second one is very risky (the bank risks its own capital here). Creating and selling derivative products belongs in the area of trading. It can be risk-free (when the bank acts only as an intermediary) or risky (if the bank takes one side of the transaction).

 

  • Advising. This area is called investment banking. It includes issuance of debt and equity capital for clients, and advising on mergers and acquisitions. It is another source of risk-free income for the bank, unless, of course the bank risks its own capital in the transaction (such as full underwriting, for example).

Valuation of banks should be done on the sum-of-parts basis. Of the four parts listed above, only value of lending and cash management can be reliably estimated: all bank's assets (loans it provided) and liabilities (deposits it took) are valued at their current market values, while cash management could be valued similar to any servicing company generating a certain net margin on fairly predictable operational volume. Income from trading and advising is utterly unpredictable, with proprietary trading bearing a risk of huge losses.

All in all, we do not think that any valuation model (ours including) that uses only financial statements and macroeconomic parameters as inputs can be used for valuation of banks and other financial institutions. Keep this in mind while looking at intrinsic value estimates provided at this site.