INTRINSIC VALUE OF STOCK

Google Inc (GOOG)

STOCK VALUATION MODEL INPUTS

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth, %
Revenue decline factor
 
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
   
 
Step 1

Manual adjustment of revenue growth rates (RGR) and discount rates (DR) for the next 18 years:
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
RGR, %
DR, %
 
Revenue (in 2011), US$ mln
Operating margin (excl. deprec.), %
Fixed operating expenses, US$ mln
Interest rate on debt, %
Corporate tax rate, %
Stock options cost / Revenue, %
Dividend payout ratio
 
Revenue / Production assets
Revenue / Working capital
Life of production assets, years
Cash & short-t. investments, US$ mln
Gross debt, US$ mln
Equity, US$ mln
Goodwill, US$ mln
 
Inflation, %
Market price of stock, US$ (Feb. 17)
Number of shares outstanding, mln
   
   
Step 2

Stock valuation results will appear here after you hit the Calculate button above.
Please check/change the model input data first. The most important discretionary inputs are highlighted.

SUMMARY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS  of  Google Inc (GOOG)

 
Quarterly Data
     
Annual Data
Income Statement
3 months ending
 
Fiscal year ending Dec. 31
(in millions of US$)
2011
12-31
2011
09-30
2011
06-30
2011
03-31
 
2011
2010
2009
2008
Revenue
10584
9720
9026
8575
 
37905
29321
23650.56
21795.55
Other Revenue
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Total Revenue
10584
9720
9026
8575
 
37905
29321
23650.56
21795.55
Cost of Revenue
3702
3378
3172
2936
 
13188
10417
8844.11
8621.51
Gross Profit
6882
6342
5854
5639
 
24717
18904
14806.45
13174.04
Selling, General, Admin. Exp.
2077
1880
1739
1617
 
7313
4761
3651.24
3748.88
Research & Development
1298
1404
1234
1226
 
5162
3762
2843.03
2793.19
Other Operating Expenses
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Total Operating Expenses
7077
6662
6145
6279
 
26273
18940
15338.38
16258.34
Income Before Tax
3489
3360
3085
2392
 
12326
10796
8381.19
5853.60
Income After Tax
2705
2729
2505
1798
 
9737
8505
6520.45
4226.86
Minority Interest
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Net Income
2705
2729
2505
1798
 
9737
8505
6520.45
4226.86
       
Balance Sheet
As of
 
As of Dec. 31
(in millions of US$)
2011
12-31
2011
09-30
2011
06-30
2011
03-31
 
2011
2010
2009
2008
Cash and ST Investments
44626
42560
39118
36675
 
44626
34975
24484.78
15845.77
Total Current Assets
52758
50042
46442
43310
 
52758
41562
29166.96
20178.18
Net Goodwill
7346
6989
6677
6308
 
7346
6256
4902.56
4839.85
Net Intangibles
1578
1474
1381
1016
 
1578
1044
774.94
996.69
Long Term Investments
790
891
893
666
 
790
523
128.98
85.16
Other Long Term Assets
499
488
465
411
 
499
707
678.73
433.85
Total Assets
72574
69088
64861
59960
 
72574
57851
40496.78
31767.58
Short Term Debt
1218
1218
1217
3216
 
1218
3465
0
0
Current Portion of LT Debt
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Total Current Liabilities
8913
8888
7798
9332
 
8913
9996
2747.47
2302.09
Total Debt
4204
4204
4202
3216
 
4204
3465
0
0
Redeemable Preferred Stock
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Non-Redeem. Pref. Stock
0
0
0
0
 
0
0
0
0
Total Equity
58145
54830
51991
48851
 
58145
46241
36004.22
28238.86
Common Shares (mln)
324.89
323.76
322.67
322.13
 
324.89
321.30
317.77
315.11
             
Cash Flow Statement
12m end.
9m end.
6m end.
3m end.
 
Fiscal year ending Dec. 31
(in millions of US$)
2011
12-31
2011
09-30
2011
06-30
2011
03-31
 
2011
2010
2009
2008
Net Income
9737
7033
4304
1798
 
9737
8505
6520.45
4226.86
Depreciation & Depletion
1396
1011
648
301
 
1396
1067
1240.03
1212.24
Amortization
455
337
208
100
 
455
329
284.28
287.65
Changes in Working Capital
630
355
179
240
 
630
-99
485.99
327.23
Cash from Operating Activities
14565
10641
6691
3172
 
14565
11081
9316.20
7852.86
Capital Expenditures
-3438
-2487
-1807
-890
 
-3438
-4018
-809.89
-2358.46
Other Investing Cash Flow Items
-15603
-11995
-9228
-3531
 
-15603
-6662
-7209.32
-2960.96
Cash Dividends Paid
-
-
-
-
 
-
-
-
-
Issuance (Ret.) of Stock, Net
-5
-20
88
116
 
-5
-507
143.14
-71.52
Foreign Exchange Effects
22
74
187
145
 
22
-19
10.51
-45.92
Cash Interest Paid
40
-
-
-
 
40
0
0
1.56
Cash Taxes Paid
1471
914
864
210
 
1471
2175
1895.97
1223.98

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Google Inc (GOOG)

Valuation Ratios
 
Financial Strength
 
Profitability Ratios
P/E Ratio
20.2
  Quick Ratio
37
  Gross Margin
65.2%
Price to Sales
5.2
  Current Ratio
5.9
  Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.
64.1%
Price to Book
3.4
  LT Debt to Equity
5.1%
  EBITDA Margin
37.5%
Price to Tangible Book
  Total Debt to Equity
7.2%
  EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.
40.3%
Price to Cash Flow
13.5
  Interest Coverage
309
  Operating Margin
30.7%
Price to Free Cash Flow
17.7
 
Management Effectiveness
  Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.
33.7%
Growth Rates
  Return On Assets
15%
  Pre-Tax Margin
32.5%
Sales Growth Rate
29.3%
  Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg.
16.8%
  Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.
34.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate
%
  Return On Total Capital
17.4%
  Net Profit Margin
25.7%
EPS Growth Rate
%
  Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg.
19.2%
  Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.
27.4%
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate
%
  Return On Equity
18.7%
  Effective Tax Rate
21%
Capital Spending Gr. Rate
-14.4%
  Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg.
19.9%
  Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg.
21.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate
7.8%
  Asset Turnover
0.6
  Payout Ratio
0%
               

DEFINITION OF TERMS used for the MODEL'S INPUT

Production assets is the sum of the balance sheet items Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E), Goodwill, and Intangibles.

Initial revenue growth rate is set to be equal to the current annual revenue growth rate (calculated from the income statement for the last reported period).

Terminal revenue growth rate is expected annual revenue growth rate in 25 years from now.

Revenue decline factor is a multiplier applied in each of the future years to the difference between the then-current revenue growth rate and the terminal revenue growth rate. It makes possible a smooth decline (or increase) in projected revenue growth rates to the terminal revenue growth rate.

Initial discount rate is the rate at which the company's cash flow in a year from now is discounted to the present time.

Discount rate multiplier is a multiplier applied in each of the future years to the then-current discount factor. This leads to increase in the discount rate in each of the subsequent years, which justified by increase in risk/uncertainty.

DEFINITION OF TERMS used for the MODEL'S OUTPUT

Intrinsic value is the value of a security (in our case it is a common stock) calculated as the present value of future cash flows the owner of that security is expected to receive. Sometimes, intrinsic value is also referred to as 'fundamental value', 'true value' or 'fair value' (the latter use is not correct in principle). Present value of future cash flows (or discounted cash flows) is the sum of future years' cash flows discounted to the present day using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate is dependent on general level of interest rates and riskiness of an investment.

Margin of safety is the difference between stock's intrinsic value and its market price. The term was coined by the founders of value investing, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, in their book Security Analysis (1934). It is the key parameter for value investors in stock selection. Margin of safety provides room for uncertainty and errors in estimation of future cash flows and other stock valuation variables.

Upside/downside potential is the total gain/loss an investor would have had on his investment in a stock if the stock is bought at its current market price and sold at its intrinsic value. By the way, there is no guarantee that the stock will ever trade at or even near its intrinsic value, as the price of any asset or security is determined by market forces. Therefore, there is also no guarantee that an investor will not suffer a loss even on the best and highest-rated stocks.