GRAHAM AND DODD STOCK SCREENER
NOTE: Please be careful in how you use the intrinsic value estimates shown here. Do not take them at face value. They are used here for a rough stock screening purposes only. A thorough analysis of each individual secutiry is needed before an investment decision is made.
Stocks Listed in the USA |
||||||||||||
| Ticker | Company name | Equity $ mln |
Goodwill $ mln |
Net income (3-yr avg.) $ mln |
Dividends (3-yr avg.) $ mln |
Payout ratio % |
Dividend yield % |
Number of shares mln |
Stock price $/share |
Intrinsic value $/share |
Margin of safety $/share |
Margin of safety % |
AEY |
ADDvantage Technolog | 36 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
2.13 |
4.8 |
2.67 |
125 |
AGO |
Assured Guaranty Ltd | 3733 |
0 |
216 |
24 |
11 |
1 |
182 |
17.52 |
27.07 |
9.55 |
55 |
AIRT |
Air T, Inc. | 26 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
33 |
3.5 |
2 |
9.34 |
18.78 |
9.44 |
101 |
AMED |
Amedisys Inc | 878 |
791 |
112 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
11.29 |
21.98 |
10.69 |
95 |
CSC |
Computer Sciences Co | 7504 |
4038 |
891 |
26 |
3 |
1.5 |
155 |
33.08 |
51.92 |
18.84 |
57 |
DO |
Diamond Offshore Dri | 4333 |
0 |
1098 |
900 |
82 |
8.1 |
139 |
64.78 |
103.02 |
38.24 |
59 |
FSLR |
First Solar, Inc. | 3455 |
433 |
551 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
86 |
42.59 |
66.85 |
24.26 |
57 |
GLW |
Corning Incorporated | 21078 |
926 |
2790 |
326 |
12 |
1.7 |
1520 |
13.84 |
23.51 |
9.67 |
70 |
HMN |
Horace Mann Educator | 880 |
47 |
55 |
13 |
24 |
2.1 |
40 |
16.77 |
29.38 |
12.61 |
75 |
ITT |
ITT Corporation | 4505 |
4277 |
746 |
148 |
20 |
8.4 |
93 |
22.72 |
50.65 |
27.93 |
123 |
KND |
Kindred Healthcare, | 1032 |
242 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
52 |
11.78 |
19.38 |
7.6 |
65 |
L |
Loews Corporation | 18450 |
856 |
2128 |
144 |
7 |
0.7 |
397 |
38.30 |
73.01 |
34.71 |
91 |
LINC |
Lincoln Educational | 222 |
107 |
46 |
2 |
4 |
2.7 |
23 |
9.23 |
15.69 |
6.46 |
70 |
LNC |
Lincoln National Cor | 12806 |
3019 |
184 |
184 |
100 |
0.5 |
302 |
25.56 |
38.54 |
12.98 |
51 |
NRG |
NRG Energy Inc | 8303 |
1868 |
881 |
32 |
4 |
0.2 |
230 |
17.50 |
47.83 |
30.33 |
173 |
RIMM |
Research In Motion L | 8938 |
508 |
2587 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
524 |
15.07 |
40.77 |
25.7 |
171 |
RSH |
RadioShack Corporati | 843 |
41 |
200 |
30 |
15 |
3.4 |
100 |
7.88 |
19.55 |
11.67 |
148 |
SENEA |
Seneca Foods Corp | 354 |
0 |
28 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
27.75 |
42.11 |
14.36 |
52 |
SFG |
StanCorp Financial G | 2011 |
36 |
179 |
38 |
21 |
2.2 |
44 |
40.62 |
69.12 |
28.5 |
70 |
SIGM |
Sigma Designs Inc | 398 |
45 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
5.92 |
12.97 |
7.05 |
119 |
SKX |
Skechers USA Inc | 908 |
2 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
13.04 |
26.38 |
13.34 |
102 |
SKYW |
SkyWest, Inc. | 1421 |
0 |
98 |
8 |
8 |
1.4 |
51 |
12.94 |
38.47 |
25.53 |
197 |
UNM |
Unum Group | 8944 |
201 |
764 |
108 |
14 |
1.7 |
292 |
23.08 |
44.81 |
21.73 |
94 |
UVV |
Universal Corp | 1186 |
100 |
152 |
61 |
40 |
5.5 |
23 |
47.17 |
92.6 |
45.43 |
96 |
WFR |
MEMC Electronic Mate | 2252 |
343 |
118 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
230 |
4.70 |
10.84 |
6.14 |
131 |
Security Analysis is arguably the most important book on value investing. You might be surprised, but there is no valuation methodology in the book. Benjamin Graham and David Dodd did not provide any indication that they used a formula or a specific algorithm for determining intrinsic value of common stocks.
The book, quite appropriately, is named "Security Analysis", not "Security Valuation". In the sections related to common-stock investment, it contains description of a general approach to selecting stocks. There is also a good treatise on how to adjust the income statement and balance sheet and what factors to look at in a comparison valuation. But you will be looking in vain for a well defined valuation process. Nonetheless, Security Analysis is a great book. It clearly distinguishes investing from speculation, and arms the investor with general guiding principles of investing.
The stock screener presented here is not the one used by the founders of the security analysis, but the one developed by us using the general approach to security valuation they employed. The stock screener compares intrinsic value of a stock with its current market price. The difference between them is called the margin of safety.
Following the spirit of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's teachings, we assume that intrinsic value (V*) of a stock is composed of the following three components (on a per share basis):
- Tangible book value (TBV), which serves as a proxy for assets' replacement costs or assets' fair value.
- Value attributed to retained earnings, which are defined as the difference between Net Income (NI) and Dividends (Div). The value of this component is calculated as the value of a perpetual bond with the coupon equal to the company's average yearly retained earnings, and the required rate of return for retained earnings (RRRre) of 20%.
- Value attributed to dividends. The value of this component is calculated as the value of a perpetual bond with the coupon equal to the company's average yearly dividend (Div) and the required rate of return for dividends (RRRd) of 10%.
Thus, using the Graham and Dodd's approach to security selection we came up with the following very simplified formula for valuation of common stocks:
V* = TBV + ((NI – Div) / RRRre) + (Div / RRRd)
GRAHAM FORMULA STOCK SCREENER
Stocks Listed in the USA |
||||||||
| Ticker | Company name | Net income (3-yr avg.) $ mln |
Number of shares mln |
Avg. EPS $/share |
Growth rate % |
Stock price $/share |
Intrinsic value $/share |
RGV |
AMED |
Amedisys Inc | 112 |
29 |
3.8 |
8 |
11.29 |
31.51 |
2.8 |
CTRP |
Ctrip.com Internatio | 717 |
144 |
4.99 |
35 |
24.69 |
43.95 |
1.8 |
GTIV |
Gentiva Health Servi | 88 |
31 |
2.86 |
26 |
7.77 |
24.66 |
3.2 |
ITT |
ITT Corporation | 746 |
93 |
8.04 |
3 |
22.72 |
65.86 |
2.9 |
LINC |
Lincoln Educational | 46 |
23 |
2.03 |
16 |
9.23 |
17.16 |
1.9 |
NCIT |
NCI Inc | 21 |
14 |
1.51 |
24 |
7.43 |
13.01 |
1.8 |
RIMM |
Research In Motion L | 2587 |
524 |
4.94 |
33 |
15.07 |
43.26 |
2.9 |
RSH |
RadioShack Corporati | 200 |
100 |
2 |
5 |
7.88 |
16.48 |
2.1 |
THC |
Tenet Healthcare Cor | 452 |
434 |
1.04 |
2 |
5.66 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
Contrary to common belief, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd did not provide any indication that they used a formula or a specific algorithm for determining intrinsic value of a common stock. According to them, "security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security". It can only asses if the price is low or high enough. The intrinsic value is a range with vaguely defined limits, not a specific number.
In The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham provides a simple formula, that, in his own words, only "approximates the results of the more elaborate calculations in vogue" (i.e. other methods) for the valuation of growth stocks. He never actually suggested or implied that that the formula gives the "true value" of a growth stock. This formula appeared in the text in the context of the discussion how unreliable predictions of future growth rates are.
The formula was slightly revised in 1974 to adjust for variations in market interest rates and was described as follows:
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where V* is intrinsic value of a stock, EPS is the company’s last 12-month earnings per share, 8.5 is the constant representing the appropriate P/E ratio for a no-growth company as proposed by Graham, g is the company’s long-term (five years) earnings growth estimate, 4.4 is the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962, when this model was first introduced, and Y is the current yield on 20yr AAA corporate bonds.
Despite specific warnings from the author, the equation, known as the Benjamin Graham formula, is commonly used today for valuation of stocks.
Overzealous Graham followers even introduced the notion of relative Graham value (RGV), which is calculated as the ratio of stock's intrinsic value (V*) to its current price (P):
![]()
For overvalued stocks RGV is less than one, while for undervalued ones it is greater than one.
BENJAMIN GRAHAM AND DAVID DODD
Security Analysis
Summary
No value investing site can do without referencing (directly or indirectly) the founders of the value investing concept and method, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. Their book Security Analysis (1934) is the bible of the value investor. The book is mentioned in a pleortha of articles on value investing as a supporting reference. However, the value investing, as it was understood by Graham and Dodd, is quite different from how it is understood by the vast majority of modern value investors, including the authors of this site. Therefore, here we decided to go back to the source of this all and reveal what the founders of the method actually meant.
What is Value Investing according to Graham and Dodd?
In a few words - it is investing in undervalued securities, i.e. those securities intrinsic (or true) value of which is less than its market price. This is still how value investing is defined today. The difference, however, is in how the intrinsic value is determined.
Graham and Dodd define the intrinsic value as "value which is justified by the facts", which, by definition, cannot include "entirely conjectural future prospects". A true Graham and Dodd value investor would only take into consideration future prospects of a company when such prospects are certain and quantifiable. When they are either not certain or quantifiable, they are completely disregarded. This basically reduces all companies with volatile earnings to valuation based almost exclusively on balance sheet items.
What are Intrinsic Value Factors?
According to Graham and Dodd, they are:
- earnings
- dividends
- assets
- capital structure
- terms of the issue
- others (similarly known with certainty and quantifiable)
The following factors are explicitly excluded from intrinsic value estimations:
- management and reputation
- competitive conditions and prospects
- possible and probable changes in volume, price, and costs
- market factors (both general and related to a specific security)
What is the Result of Security Analysis?
According to Graham and Dodd, "security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security". It can only asses if the price is low or high enough. The intrinsic value is a range with vaguely defined limits, not a specific number.